Sources of Weather Forecasts

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Sources of Weather Forecasts

Postby bernwern » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:32 am

In my endless pursuits to the end-of-the-internet, as well as outlooks for the upcoming season, I found this to be a good site for pro and amateur long-range forecasts:

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9

You will need to dig a bit at times, but more and more of them are being released. Watch for Theo's forecasts, as he seems to be the wisest and most accurate of all, and is looked up to by most.

My take on what I have read: 07/08 winter in my region (upper Midwest) seems to look bright! high probability of average or lower temps, with at least average snowfall :) PNW is shaping up to have an epic winter from all long-range forecasters.

-B
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Postby tominwi » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:45 pm

As a weather junkie, I have found the most accurate long term forecast from the National Weather Service. You can look at their forecasts here.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php

Forecast for Dec-Feb gives a high probability of above normal temps. This is due to the La Nina conditions in the pacific with cool surface water temps. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html
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Postby bernwern » Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:43 am

From my reading, many long-range and astrometeorologists feel the NOAA is usually wrong with their assessments, as they based them more on traditional meteorology.

Regardless of who you believe, the majority of long-range forecasters I have seen are projecting a pretty good winter in the upper Midwest. Here is an extremely detailed post from one long-range forecaster (look near the bottom of his second post for temp and precip forecasts):

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=143275

-B
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Postby bernwern » Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:53 pm

Here's another long-range forecaster's winter outlook, with immense detail on what and why:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=d1f904b45926d5e31946adddae0801af&showtopic=145030

He posts some maps with temperature variations by month like 2-3 pages into replies. He also is forecasting an average or colder winter in the Midwest, along with average to above normal precipitation. More and more of the long-range forecasts are pointing to this with a strengthening La Nina. The PNW still looks like the place to go....I sure hope Bozeman gets pounded this year!

-B
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